Regional Victoria 2024: Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong compared

Three large regional centres, three very different 2024 outcomes. Here's the comparative read on these crucial Victorian hubs as we approach the end of the year on November 12, 2024.

Geelong: median dwelling values down approximately 3.8% over 2024, representing the second consecutive year of mild contraction for the region. This downturn, while concerning on the surface, is far from uniform across the city. The primary areas experiencing this recalibration are concentrated in Armstrong Creek, Mount Duneed, and the broader Lara estates. These are the outer growth-corridor communities that benefited disproportionately from the 2020-2022 Melbourne escape demand, a period when many city dwellers sought more space and perceived affordability during pandemic-induced shifts in lifestyle. As that acute, almost unprecedented, demand normalises and interest rates have remained elevated, these areas are naturally reabsorbing some of that rapid growth. It is a return to more sustainable, albeit slower, expansion cycles. Developers in these areas, particularly those with significant land holdings and new build pipelines, are now more aggressive with incentives, offering stamp duty rebates or upgraded fixtures to move stock. In contrast, inner-Geelong suburbs such as Newtown, Geelong West, and East Geelong have largely held flat, exhibiting remarkable resilience. Selective renovated stock, particularly period homes exceeding the $1.4 million mark, continues to attract genuine buyer competition. Properties in these highly desirable, established pockets, often within walking distance of amenities and the waterfront, have maintained their value with far greater tenacity, even recording modest single-digit gains in some instances for exceptional, turn-key offerings. This dichotomy underscores a fundamental distinction in buyer motivation and perceived long-term value, indicating a flight to quality and established infrastructure rather than purely relying on speculative growth in newer zones.

Ballarat: median dwelling values have demonstrated a respectable rise, up roughly 1.9% over 2024. This growth, while not explosive, is underpinned by strong rental yields, with a median gross yield hovering around 5.1%. This makes Ballarat particularly attractive for investors seeking consistent income streams. The city also benefits from slow but steady population growth, fueled by its growing employment opportunities in healthcare, education, and manufacturing, coupled with its relatively accessible housing market compared to Melbourne. The Lake Wendouree precinct remains Ballarat's premium pocket, a highly sought-after area characterised by its stately Victorian and Federation homes. Renovated four-bedroom properties in this blue-chip locale are consistently trading in the $1.4 million to $2.1 million band, reflecting strong buyer confidence in its enduring appeal. These homes often represent significant character and are tightly held, commanding premium prices when they do come to market. Conversely, much like Geelong, outer Ballarat new-build estates have softened in line with broader Victorian growth-corridor weakness. Suburbs like Alfredton, Lucas, and even parts of Delacombe, while offering relative affordability, have seen a moderation in buyer enthusiasm. The pace of new construction in these areas, coupled with higher borrowing costs, has diluted some of the rapid appreciation witnessed just a few years ago. First-home buyers and families continue to be prominent buyers in these areas, drawn by affordability and community amenities, but the urgency that characterised the post-pandemic market has clearly dissipated. The market has shifted from a seller's playground to a more balanced environment where buyers have more negotiating power and time to make decisions.

Bendigo: median dwelling values have climbed approximately 2.4%, positioning it as the strongest performer among these three significant regional centres for 2024. Several factors contribute to Bendigo's robust performance. Crucially, the continued expansion of the Bendigo Health precinct, a major regional employer, provides a stable economic anchor and attracts professionals to the city, bolstering housing demand. The health sector's growth creates a ripple effect, supporting ancillary businesses and a steady stream of new residents. Beyond this, Bendigo exhibits a vibrant inner-city renovation market, with suburbs like Quarry Hill and East Bendigo seeing consistent activity, particularly for period homes on larger blocks. These properties, often requiring significant investment, are being transformed into attractive, modern residences, appealing to both local families and those relocating from Melbourne seeking a change of pace without sacrificing amenity. Perhaps most importantly, Bendigo maintains a highly accessible price point relative to Melbourne, with a median dwelling value around $560,000. This affordability threshold is a powerful magnet for first-home buyers, young families, and investors alike. It offers a tangible pathway to homeownership or portfolio expansion that is increasingly out of reach for many within Melbourne’s metropolitan area. The city’s strong cultural offerings, established infrastructure, and improved transport links to Melbourne further enhance its appeal, creating a balanced and resilient property market. The sheer depth of the tenant pool, supported by local industry and a growing population, provides a reassuring environment for property investors.

For Melbourne-based investors eyeing regional exposure, the picture for 2024 is becoming clearer as we head into the last weeks of the year. Bendigo currently offers the cleanest combination of yield, sustained growth, and tenant-pool depth, making it a compelling proposition for those seeking a relatively lower-risk entry into the regional market. Its economic drivers appear robust and its affordability continues to be a significant draw. Geelong, while experiencing a mild contraction overall, is better viewed as a value play. This means it suits buyers with a longer-term outlook who are willing to ride out potential further softening in specific oversupplied growth corridors. The established, inner-city pockets of Geelong still hold strong appeal and will likely rebound quicker, but require a more discerning eye and a larger capital outlay. Ballarat sits comfortably between these two. It offers solid yields and steady, albeit more moderate, growth, representing a good compromise for investors seeking a balance of income and capital appreciation without the larger capital requirements of inner Geelong or the slower pace of some smaller towns. The key for any prospective buyer, regardless of their chosen regional hub, remains thorough due diligence, understanding the micro-markets within each city, and aligning the purchase with their specific financial goals and risk appetite. The regional Victorian landscape, in late 2024, is nuanced and rewards those who look beyond the headline figures.